Random Sunday Ramblings (All Things Fitness)

Here are some random ramblings about a host of health and fitness related topics. Some could be an entire article in themselves, some just save me ranting on twitter or facebook.

In no particular order:

Pilates/ Yoga/ Corrective Exercise.

• Pilates isn't magic regardless of what your Physio/ Chiro/ Osteo/ GP tells you. Many of the people recommending it have never actually done a class themselves, so have no idea why they are suggesting you do it. How about these health professionals learn some corrective exercise and start prescribing it properly. If you enjoy Pilates and like the idea of doing it, then do it. Same goes for yoga.
• The people who need to go to a yoga class are in the free-weights area, and the people who need to lift weights are in the yoga class.
• Stroke rehabilitation in this country sucks.
• I bet Joseph Pilates wished he copyrighted the name and franchised it (except, of course, he didn't know what the future would hold and now he's gone to the big studio in the sky).
• A large number of people starting in a gym will tell you they have an injury or previous injury. This is the norm. The injury free person is not the norm. So why don't they cover this on level 3 fitness courses. These aren't the special population, they are the population. The special population is that small group of people who have made it through life injury free with no mobility restrictions.
• Personal trainers and coaches started doing corrective exercise and ended up doing de facto rehabilitation because the physio services in this country have been a miserable failure.
• If I referred out every time I was meant to, the gym and Pilates class would be empty.

Strength Training. Gym Culture.

• Olympic weightlifting is a sport. Unless you are actually competing in the sport don't be so precious about whether triple extension exists, or whether the Chinese are using the catapult method, or if variations of the lifts have any benefit. If your goal is to be more athletic, explosive, strong and improve body composition then there is benefit to dumbbell variations, as well as sandbags, complexes and so forth. Olympic lifting is not compulsory for all athletes.
• Having said that some coaches seem to fear the Olympic lifts because they are 'so hard to coach' and they 'only have their athletes for a limited time' and they could spend their time on 'less technical more effective things.' If you have a healthy person with no restrictions then in my opinion they are no more difficult to coach than barbell squats or deadlifts. And dumbbell and sandbag variations can be taught even quicker than some of the standard  'slow' barbell lifts.
• Powerlifting is also a sport. Again squats, deadlifts and bench press can all be beneficial depending on the persons goals. But unless they are competing in a meet where gear is allowed and chemical enhancement is common place then following the program of the elite lifter may not be all you think is going to be.
• Strongman - see above.
• Ask most guys what they are doing in the gym today and they will say 'chest' or 'shoulders' or 'back & bi's'. Meaning most guys training in the gym still think in terms of body part splits and bodybuilding training. Rarely is anyone ever going to say 'deadlift strength' 'dynamic effort day' 'explosive power' or 'superficial back line fascia'. If you think things have moved on and functional training and strength training are now king, go and ask this question on a Monday evening in any standard gym and count how many people say 'Chest'.
• Most people working out do not compete in anything. Training is their hobby. They may be dedicated, train 7 days a week and obsess about their macro ratios but the only stage they are stepping on is at the local club on a Saturday night after drinking 10 tequila slammers. Yes, all they want to do is look good in a t-shirt or dress and attract the opposite sex or same sex - and I don't have a problem with that.

Performance Enhancing Drugs (PED).

• Most guys taking performance enhancing drugs don't compete in anything. A surprising number of guys (still a minority but sizeable) take test, growth hormone, clenbuterol and all sorts of other shit like tamoxifen just because they are so insecure and want to look bigger at said nightclub. They are either lazy, want results too quickly, stupid, and just maybe our society is now creating a physique ideal that many men find hard to achieve. Most of these guys look fat and bloated and should ask for their money back. Also don't forget these guys don't have a whole medical team backing them up like Lance Armstrong did, its just them in their bedroom with a needle, a sore arse and their friends assurance that this stuff is the 'good shit'. When it all goes pear shaped, our healthcare system will be picking up the pieces.
• You don't hear much about amateur endurance athletes taking PEDs, but I'm sure it must happen in the likes of ironman triathlon and even some marathons. It happens at the elite level, so why not amateurs? I can't see why male endurance athletes would be any less insecure than male weight trainers. Maybe EPO is too expensive, I don't know.

Fitness Industry.

• There is no equipment solution to the fitness industry problem of lack of participation. 
• The revolution that makes more people take part in fitness and join gyms won't be about a piece of equipment or a particular class or a cheap price or opening hours. It will be about motivation. The person who figures out how to tap into peoples intrinsic and extrinsic motivation and their desires and emotions will be the person who transforms the industry and improve its current abysmal market penetration.
• Recently a sales and marketing manager asked me if 'functional fitness' is a fad. Well firstly, in my world dumbbells and barbells are functional, standing on a powerplate waving a vipr is not. Seeing as humans have been lifting weighted objects for a couple of thousand years, have been trail running ever since we were upright hominids and lifting dumbbells and weighted wands/ barbells for the last two hundred years - I would say none of these are fads. However, maybe treadmills, bikes and crosstrainers are. Most of us in the industry now started in the last 10 to 20 years, which means we came into an industry built on a model of rows of cardio equipment in health clubs, but this is a relatively recent phenomenon. This is the fad, but because its been here since we started working, it seems like the norm. In 20 or 30 years will people be laughing at us because we walked indoors on treadmills while playing sudoku on a screen bolted to the front of the machine.

Fad?

• In 2009 the second most profitable fitness operation was BeachBody who own P90X. They grossed over $900 million (source: FitPro Business magazine apr/may/june 2013). Still think you need a big room full of equipment? And P90X makes Crossfit look like they are following classic Russian linear perdiodization.
• Only 39% of consumers exercise regularly (HAFOS survey 2012) despite the fact that walking and body weight exercises are free. Access to facilities is not the issue. The average person in the UK watches 4 hours of TV per day (Ofcom, 2011) therefore people are not time poor, they have enough time to exercise if they wanted to.
• Fitness trainers are arguing about the details when most of the population aren't doing anything.
• Why is there a kettlebell community? I don't see a medicine ball community or cable machine community? People don't get so zealous about other bits of equipment except possibly...
• Barbells, there is always a false dichotomy set up online. You either only use barbells or machines. You either squat or you don't. You have to use bilateral movements or unilateral. In reality it always depends. If you train people all day, you make decisions based on the person in front of you and the equipment you have available. If you don't train people all day you have time to read Supertraining with a magnifying glass and post on forums all day. Its simple: Use the tools you have, and if you have multiple tools use the most appropriate one.
• Speaking to male friends of mine who go to the gym but are not obsessed with fitness and aren't in the industry - they like machine weights because they are convenient, they can do a quick circuit and they are easy set to set up. When I asked why they don't use the freeweights they gave all the same reasons that most women do - intimidated, too crowded, set up time and mainly the area is normally full of douches doing 50 sets on the bench with their mates while talking shit.
• You think people care about research or things have moved on - go and see how many people are still doing crunches in the gym.
• People opt out of inductions/ orientations because their previous experience tells them its going to be shit and not address their needs. You can change this by offering a quality product.
• Probably no one is going to take us seriously when the entry level to the industry is set so low. A weekend course and you can be the fitness expert in the park #beasting people #smashingit #hardcorefitness  #lawsuit  #chump.

Running.

• Running 100 miles is not logical in any way, so why do I want to do it?
• I've seen just as many injured from weight training as from long distance running. Despite this, there is a trend among strength coaches to say that if you run long distances you will end up skinny fat and injured. Which is like saying if you powerlift you will end up fat with a pec tear. Most runners get lower body injuries, most weight lifters upper body. Both have lower back injuries. It could be runners are more likely to report injury or go to a physio - but I'm guessing. Or weight training injuries such as elbow surgeries etc just are written down as being caused by training.
• People say standing on stage in a pair trunks painted brown posing is ridiculous. But 22 men on a pitch kicking a bag of air around isn't - and they are millionaires. I don't do either, but if its your passion and you enjoy it - don't listen to anyone else. This applies to all sports.
• All runners need to do some form of resistance training.
• Most runners are weak and have appalling movement screens - this doesn't mean they are bad runners.
• You can be overweight and run. And if you enjoy it and your joints don't hurt then carry on. But don't think it will help you lose weight. That stick thin female and male runner who just went past you - they probably always looked like that.
• Since I started running properly again a few years ago and started to midfoot strike more my calves have got progressively tighter. But if I stretch them will it make me a better runner or worse runner or less injury prone? Or would it make me just feel better because I was doing some flexibility work that really had no benefit?
• Barefoot running is not magic, but I quite like doing it.

Women in the gym.

• Why do so many women want to look like the bag of bones models in fashion magazines, why do they think men want them to look like that? It makes me sad.
• A good proportion of figure and fitness competitors had a back ground in gymnastics and athletics as kids. Essentially they were doing gymnastic training for 20 years and then decided to lift some weights.  If you don't have that background don't beat yourself up, its going to take more than a year to get to where they are. Without taking anything away from the figure pros with that background - I'm more impressed with the people who have lost 20kg and have been working hard for 10 years than the people who are genetically gifted with a 6 pack.
• Crossfit isn't evil. How many women did you see doing pull ups and Olympic lifting before crossfit?And crossfitters aren't the only people doing random workouts, go to any gym or any day and see what random stuff people are doing and what random stuff personal trainers are giving people. Crossfit didn't invent the random illogical workout. And once again, see above, what are you actually training for. Plus a fair amount of hot women do crossfit.
• Do women really need to train differently from men? They need to train differently to men if they have different goals for sure.

Nutrition.

• Why are they still teaching the standard food pyramid/eat well food plate on level 3 fitness courses. Where is the evidence to support it?

Official UK NHS FSA Eat Well  Plate. Foods high in fat and sugar get the same segment. Turns out coconut oil and olive oil are in the same category as high fructose corn syrup and skittles

• Intermittent fasting, low carb, paleo, carb cycling, carb back loading, vegan, vegetarian, biorhythm diet have all worked for someone at some point. It doesn't mean they will necessarily work for you. Someone do some research please.
• If you can find any evidence to support the hypothesis that a  low fat diet is better than a low carb diet for weight loss, you can submit it here and win a cash prize!
• Always check the research references people quote to support their argument. You may be surprised to find they aren't always quoting the best research and sometimes it actually says the opposite of what they are saying (thanks to Nick Heasman for this one and being research vigilant!)
• I don't like bulletproof coffee.
• I used to fear the avocado. But seasoning is the key.

Coaching.

• What works for you may not necessarily work for your clients.
• Don't be the guy who trains his girlfriend by giving her exactly the same workout you do. She probably doesn't want a day dedicated to biceps and forearms.
• Coaching is a mix of art and science. Much like practicing medicine, except we don't kill as many people with adverse drug reactions.
• Most American strength coaches are biased towards American Football, Basketball, Baseball and Ice Hockey because that's who they coach. Their information may not necessarily apply to the athletes you are coaching. This doesn't mean you can't take something from what they do, you probably can't adopt it wholesale though.
• A few years ago tempo training was all the rage, popularised by Ian King and Poliquin (before he jumped the shark and starting injecting vitamin C to boost testosterone, taking skin fold measurements of peoples chins and packing on 10 pounds of muscle by eating Guatemalan mangoes). I generally ignored tempo until I read Triphasic training. Now, I have used eccentric, isometric and concentric phases with people looking to gain strength, bodybuilders, sports players and figure athletes. I will write a separate article at some point showing how you can simply apply it to various training programmes.
• The best coaches were not the best sportsmen. As far as I am aware John Wooden wasn't a superstar basket player, Dave Brailsford never won the Tour De France (yeah, I know he is not technically a coach), Tony Minichiello wasn't a Decathlon world champion and one of the greatest running coaches of all time - Brother Colm O'Connell - arrived in Kenya as an Irish missionary with no experience of coaching professional runners. The most talented and successful athletes can't always tell you how they did it or coach others.
• This stuff should be fun, don't take it too seriously.

Breaking Bad.

• The second half of the final season starts on Netflix next week. Huzzah!

Hank Schrader

Tortuga: �Hey white boy, my name�s Tortuga. You know what that means?�

Hank: �If I have to guess, I�d say that�s Spanish for asshole.�

Top Ten Fitness Trends For 2011

It's been a busy January. Unlike some internet fitness gurus I actually train people in the real world, hence this is my first blog of 2011.

Here are my predictions of what's going to be big in 2011 fitness-wise.

Note: Of the top ten trends I have put together, some are things that I like, some are things that I don't personally like but will be popular anyway, and a couple of things are probably wishful thinking on my part - things that I want to be trends. I have also put a list together of things which are already popular and will continue to grow.

Before I get to my list I want to review the list that is put together by the American College Of Sports Medicine (ACSM). Below is their list and my commentary on it

1. Educated and experienced fitness professionals. Of course they would say that, they are an accreditation organisation. I want this one to be true. Rather than having a system that at one end of the spectrum churns out sports science graduates who don't even know how to squat or deadlift, and at the other end has courses that last a day or two and then suddenly the person is a fitness professional. A profession that lets you deal with peoples bodies, the most sacred possession they have, with the minimal of experience of training. Let's hope this changes.
2. Fitness programs for older adults. This one has been around for years, and it has never really taken off or come to fruition. Here's why: older adults are not all the same! I have a female client in her 70's who can rack deadlift 60kg from just below the knees, as well as doing goblet squats and a whole range of strength exercises. I also teach a group of older people, where at least 4 of them couldn't get of a chair due to a whole host of problems they have accumulated over a lifetime. And then we have ultra runners like Jack Dennes who is in his 70's completing the badwater ultra. The obvious point is, the population over the age of 60 are not one amorphous group; some are very fit, some are injured, some have trained their whole life, some haven't.
3. Strength training. How can strength training be a trend?! It should be a fundamental component of any fitness program!
4. Children and obesity. Another one that has been banded about for years. All attempt I've seen so far to tap into this market have failed.
5. Personal Training. Of course they would say that. See my list to see a more specific trend. One to one training may well be over.
6. Core training. Whatever the core may be, there is no definitive definition. Having core training as a trend is like having leg training as a trend.
7. Exercise and weightloss. Shouldn't this be number 1, every year, forever?
8. Bootcamps. This is already happening, see my list for how it may evolve. And my previous post on bootcamps here.
9. Functional training. Whatever this is, isn't a deadlift functional?
10. Physician referrals. This is a whole other blog post, because the healthcare system is set up differently in the UK compared to the USA, I will write about this another time.

And without further ado, to my list of the top ten fitness trends in 2011.

1. Small group training/ semi private training.


I'm going to make a bold statement. Personal training doesn't work for most people, you might as well do a gym induction and write them a program to go away with, it has about the same success rate. Here's why. Most people only have one personal training sessions a week, if you're lucky they might do two. Then most of these clients don't do any training when they aren't with the trainer or train in a half-arsed way, and then most of these have a few sessions and then stop. Of course, there are some exceptions, but most people follow this route.


The cost of one to one sessions is too prohibitive for most people. That's why they only have one session a week or buy a block and then stop. Small group training makes the sessions more affordable, suddenly a person is paying a quarter of the price, so they can then attend more sessions.

But the most important reason the small group sessions work better for most people is the group dynamic. With all the small group training sessions I have been involved with, there is a sense of group camaraderie, banter between the participants and the instructor, and they are always high energy with everyone pushing everyone else to achieve more. The results from semi private training are superior in my opinion. As an instructor, they are more enjoyable to teach and you end up getting results with more clients. Everyone's a winner.

The semi private training model has been perfected and made popular by the likes of Alwyn Cosgrove and Cressey Performance and has been around for quite a few years. However, it seems commercial gyms have never really gotten a hold of it, and don't know how to deal with it. Are the trainers teaching a class or doing a personal training session they ask? It doesn't fit their payment model. This year might be the year commercial fitness facilities finally grasp the concept, and don't get left behind; as they increasingly are these days.

2. Online training

You can only train so many people one to one, and even in group training environments you can only train so many people per week. With online training, it is possible to have hundreds of clients at any one time.

This guy has 500 online personal training clients

Again, online training has been around for a while. And got a bad name in some circles, as it ended up being the domain of internet gurus who had never really trained anyone in real life. Also the technology wasn't there to begin with. Now anyone, can put together some decent quality videos and post them immediately.

Two recent products seem to have exploited this video phenomenon. Eric Cresseys Show & Go and Mike Boyles BodyByBoyle. I don't own or subscribe to either of these products. But the model is sound, why buy a book when you can get a whole video library as well, either through a one off payment or on-going monthly subscription.

Commercial gyms already have access to the market, but once again are lagging behind. If someone joins your gym and has a one off induction, (and if you're lucky they might get 4 or 5 follow up appointments) but then want to remind themselves of an exercise technique, why not create a video library online. They can still get advice and coaching from the instructors, they two concepts are not mutually exclusive. If a customer wants to buy an exercise program from you or access your virtual gym, why not let them. Sales people and owners of large chains are still enamoured by equipment and museum tours. Your product is not the room full of treadmills, it is the expertise of your staff and how they help clients achieve results.

With an online product, your market is not just the town you live in, but everyone in the world who could benefit from your knowledge. It's time the true fitness professionals took the online market back from the hucksters and keyboard warriors.

3. Crossfit style workouts & crazy gymnastics

There are a few crossfit facilities in the UK, but not that many. I expect a few more will open. But what is more likely is trainers will start to copy the model. Get yourself an olympic lifting qualification, even if you haven't lifted a weight in your life, buy some gymnastic rings, put together a random workout and bingo - you got yourself a class!

There are some good people involved in cross fit, see Kelly Starrett's mobility WOD blog for an example. And we could debate the benefits of high repetition olympic lifting all days. But more troubling, will be the trainers with a little knowledge making people do stupid things. These are probably going to be the same people doing bootcamps in the park. Don't worry if you've got the hip mobility of a wooden table and a bad back, these clean & jerks and hand stand back flips should sort you out.

Crossfit does make women hot

Conditioning workouts can be great, and crossfit does seem to produce an abundance of hot women. But appropriate movement screening and exercise modalities to suit the individual should be considered.

Or are the women of crossfit hot before they even start?

Again, commercial facilities could create their own version of this and invest in their staff training, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Who cares: hot women do crossfit, that's all we need to know

4. Bootcamps

Yes, bootcamps are already a trend. See my post here. In 2011, I think the market will become more segmented and commercial facilities will try to get in on the game about 2 years too late.

There already is some market segmentation, with bootcamps for women only like Fit For A Princess. This year there will be more of this. Rather than just military bootcamps, there will be weight loss bootcamps, kids bootcamps, sports bootcamps etc. Of course, the exercises you will do in all these bootcamps will be exactly the same! Run around the park, do some burpees, crunches, plyometric lunges and press ups.

Workout in the park: Bootcamp Peter Griffin style

Bu the people running these know they are onto a good thing. No equipment, no personal training rent, no individualised program, no building needed. Why make �40 an hour from one person, when you can get 20 people and charge them �10 each, that's �200 an hour for shouting at people in the park. Job done.

5. Corrective exercise & mobility.

With all these cross fit style workouts and bootcamp randomness there are going to be some injured people. The trainer well versed in corrective exercise and mobility will be positioned to deal with this. These days, it's rare for me to see anyone who hasn't been injured in some way. May be its just the people who get referred to me, but in  nearly every consultation I have some kind of back, shoulder or knee injury is mentioned. Almost every week someone says to me in passing 'I've got a shoulder/ knee/ back / problem what exercise should  I do for it.'. The correct answer is, it depends. I'm not going to give you some random exercises without assessing it and getting some history.

With regards to this I recommend Charlie Weingroffs DVD 'Training = Rehab Rehab = Training'. Use the functional movement screen, the selective functional movement assessment, the joint by joint approach and the core pendulum theory as your blue print. Again I can't recommend this DVD highly enough.

Even if you don't use this, have some type of systematic approach to it, I have no problem blending the work of Janda, Sahrmann, McGill, and Thomas Myers Anatomy Trains. Be the go to person.

This is one of my wishful thinking trends. I still see trainers giving people crunches and knee side to side...sigh.

6. Indian Clubs/ Power Clubs

The most popular exercise of the Victorian era is due a come back. I first saw 'bear clubs' mentioned on www.intensefitness.co.uk (the place I bought my first kettlebell from) about 6 years ago. Since then Indian clubs have been threatening to be the new kettlebell, but have never quite broken through.

Indian Clubs

There is now at least one training organisation (Premier) in the UK offering a one day course in 'power clubs', see the video clip below. I haven't done this training course, but I may well do.




The name 'Indian clubs' has always been dragging them down, if they'd called them 'hardcore MMA conditioning clubs' or 'fat loss skittles' then they'd be mainstream already.

The potential for shoulder rehab work, mobility, as well as conditioning, make these are versatile tool.

7. Yoga, breathing, meditation

Yoga makes a comeback every few years with a different emphasis. Sometimes its as a cardiovascular power workout like Ashtanga, sometimes its purely as a stretching class and sometimes its a bunch of folk in a super heated room overstretching their ligaments.

The current comeback will be based around breathing. In this ever increasing  sedentary and stressful world people are breathing in a very poor way. Recently, I've seen quite a few people breathing high up into their chest and shoulders, and they were unable to breather into the diaphragm or abdomen when I first demonstrated it, they had lost the ability to breathe properly.

The benefits of meditation and breathing correctly are well known. Many people are still reluctant to go to a class on meditation, but they will go to a yoga class, where they can get many of the same benefits. Though, I think in 2011 we may even see a rise in meditation classes. Good yoga instructors can combine breahting, stretching, mobility and quietening of the mind into one seemless narrative.

Here's a good article on the benefits of meditation.

And this is an article on breathing I like by an RKC and yoga teacher

He may be meditating peacefully now, but how's he going to get back to dry land?

8. Intermittent Fasting

The only nutrition trend to make the list. Fasting has been around since forever, but as a product it's hard to sell. You tell someone not to eat for 24 hours, they don't really need a diet plan or supplement for this. There's nothing to sell them.

In recent years, intermittent fasting has started to get an underground internet following which may well go mainstream. Brad Pilons ebook Eat Stop Eat is very good and covers some of the science, the website leangains has a good following and most recently Christian Thibaudeau on T-nation has come up with at least two fasting protocols. And rather than saying eat nothing, they've linked it to a supplement protocol, which makes it more marketable. And once somethings on t-nation its only a matter of time before someone copies and pastes it. True story: I have seen a PowerPoint presentation given by a training company to group of people as part of a Fitness Industry Association seminar that had sections in it copied and pasted from t-nation. Now the information was good, but it shows that the people running training companies don't know anymore than anyone else with an internet connection.

When intermittent fasting goes mainstream expect it to confuse the public and the mainstream media. For years, the message to eat breakfast and  eat 4-6 small a day has been a mantra in the fitness industry. Suddenly, the message will get confused, when someone starts saying, actually you don't need to eat breakfast, and may be try eating nothing for 24 hours?!

Of course, the 'eating small and often' and the 'intermittent fasting' approach both work, just to add to the confusion the public will have about this.

9. Vertical pole

Pole dancing has never gone mainstream. However, as I mentioned in the complete history of fitness part 1, at least one company is offering vertical pole classes to men and women. And if anyone at pussycat poles wants to invite me to try the class and write a review, I'm more than happy to give it a go!

All you need to do is put one of the vertical poles in a crossfit style circuits and call it a  'gymnastic core conditioning pole' and you got yourself a trend.

10. Everything will continue as before.

The biggest trend of 2011 will be inertia. Commercial chains will do what they've always done, offer their members one to one service in the sales blurb and then ignore them. Rely on an underpaid, undervalued and minimally qualified workforce. And continue to sell memberships like you're buying some double glazing off of a guy in 1983. Keep investment low, and have facilities over reliant on cardio machines and resistance machines that they have had for years. And a whole group of personal trainers with spikey hair and shaved legs will continue to say 'awesome' too much and will become bootcamp & crossfit experts as well.

If only Rollerball was going to be one of the fitness trends of 2011

Trends that will continue.

Zumba

Already popular. I didn't realise until I recently sent some staff on a zumba course, that it is a 2 day certification that anyone can do. No fitness qualification needed. They show you a few moves and then encourage you to free style and add in your own moves. Like most fitness courses, everyone passes regardless of how bad they are (remember the ACSM number 1 trend). Which means, you could go to class taught by someone who is a trained dancer and it will be great and inspiring or you could go to a class taught by someone who dances like you Nan at a wedding. Either way, expect there to be more zumba instructors than participants by the end of the year. Kerching!


Kettlebells

Popularity will grow because they work when done properly.

It goes without saying, if your instructor can't do a clean or snatch or turkish get up and doesn't know what a hip hinge is, go somewhere else.

Excuse for another crossfit woman picture

Boxing/ MMA

Either in small group format or as part of the bootcamp. Either way 'tap out' have got a lot of clothing they need to sell.

Suspension training, TRX, fitkit

Becoming part of mainstream gyms at last. Gymnastic rings are the cheaper option.

Wrap Up

Well those are my predictions, lets see if I'm right.